Stop pooh pooing over Pau, here’s why!

Last night Pau Gasol continued his disappointing start by posting 10/9/3 and a block in 32 minutes. Suddenly I’m getting questions from the left about him. I’m getting questions from the right. I’m getting questions from above and below! I’m getting questions everywhere, man! I’m like the guy that got food thrown at him by lots of people at the same time and am trying to get out of the way but I can’t. Anyway, let’s settle this right here and right now. You want the truth, you can’t handle the truth, son! The truth is you want Pau on that wall! You need Pau on that wall! Let’s take a look why. On the season he’s averaging 35.7 mpg/13.1 ppg/9.1 rpg/3.3 apg/.5 spg/1.3 bpg/.423 FG/12.1 FGA/.759 FT/3.6 FTA. Now let’s compare these numbers to his career averages, shall we? 36 mpg/18.6 ppg/9.3 rpg/3.2 apg/.5 spg/1.7 bpg/.519 FG/13.5 FGA/.752 FT/6 FTA. I know I just strung a bunch of numbers together and maybe your eyes are all googly now. Sorry about that. In short though, this is what you’ll find. His minutes, boards, assists, steals, FT% and FGA are all almost exactly in line with his career averages. His blocks are down .4 but I’m not concerned about that, he’s still blocking the ball. What’s different? Good question, excellent question. His points are down by 5.5 per. His FG% is down from .519 to .423 and his FTA are down from 6 to 3.6 per. That’s it then, the answer is in the percents and the FTA. Next question is do you really think Pau is going to continue to shoot .423 FG? If you do, then by all means sell him. I know you don’t. Two more buckets per and he’s at 17 ppg. Maybe he won’t get to the line 6x a game, but 3.6 FTA per is kinda low so let’s say he gets to the line 5.2x per going forward, that’s not unreasonable. There’s your extra point to get you to 18 ppg. Lady and gentlemen, he’s just struggling to hit shots from the floor right now. It’s called a shooting slump so chill baby, baby chill! Do you feel better? Are his knees a concern? Maybe but if you can get him as a buy low right now, I’d go for it. Remember, buy low/sell high, peoples!

Here’s what else I saw in fantasy basketball yesterday:

Steve Nash – Still not really jogging yet. Here’s what I said back on November 5: Have you ever fractured your fibula? I haven’t but I’m guessing if I did, I wouldn’t be planning on playing basketball after only two weeks. I have a feeling I’d need my fibula to, you know, do things like run and jump. Steve Nash has this problem. His owners now have this problem. Steve Blake is no Steve Nash, said Lloyd Benson! Who? Look it up if you don’t know! I’m in an election type mood, I guess. Anyway, I’m not counting on Nash helping until at least after Thanksgiving. That’s just me though, one doctor said possibly as soon as two weeks but what does he know? So who are you going to believe going forward, me or an orthopedist? It’s called common sense! Try it sometime, it’s fun! Continue to hold, hopefully back in early December.

Josh Howard – 0/0/0 with a block in 7 minutes. A commenter asked me my thoughts on Howard possibly moving into the starting lineup. I told him naw, not worth losing anyone for him. Now you see why?

Jason Thompson – 7/5/0 with a steal and 3 blocks in 27 minutes. Decent for your last forward if that’s your thing. I can see Thomas Robinson eventually cramping his style as the season progresses though.

Aaron Brooks – 7/3/4 with a three in 26 minutes. You know I haven’t advocated committing to him for the long term. Wait, that’s like saying don’t get married. Well, don’t!

John Salmons – 5/0/2 with a steal in 30 minutes. Because it’s necessary that John Salmons play 30 minutes!

Darren Collison – Surprisingly came off the bench but dropped 12/3/6 with 5 steals in 30 minutes anyway. Assign same value you had for him yesterday morning. Or the day before yesterday. Or the day before that. It’s all the same value!

Elton Brand – Returned to Philly and posted 17/8/0 with a steal and a block in just 18 lonely minutes of burn. Motivated! I don’t really see the good times rolling though. Sigh.

Evan Turner – 22/4/4 with 2 threes in 36 minutes. Last week I told you I smelled, or is it smelt?, a hot run coming from Evan. Scorch! In the good way!

Spencer Hawes – 6/2/0 with a steal in 13 minutes. Feel free to lose him, I’ve lost hope! See what I did there?

Michael Beasley – 15/4/0 with a steal and a three in 29 minutes. I hope you held. I tried anyway.

Markieff Morris – 4/2/0 with 2 steals and a block in 24 minutes. Here’s what I told you yesterday: Recently, you have the mess in Phoenix with wholesale starter changes. Out went Luis Scola, in went Markieff Morris. Out went Jared Dudley, in went Shannon Brown. Sort of out went Michael Beasley but then quickly he was back in again. At the end of the day, what you end up with is a bunch of guys playing 20something minutes with mediocre lines. Um, yay?

Luis Scola – 14/4/2 with a steal and a block in 24 minutes. I still have him benched in the 14 team league I own him in but I’m not dropping him. Nobody out there is better.

Jared Dudley – 11/4/1 with a steal in 22 minutes. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Shannon Brown started and posted 9/3/2 with a steal, a block and a three in 24 minutes. Now I refer you back to Markieff Morris’ blurb two inches or so above (depending on your monitor). What did I tell you yesterday about everyone playing 20 something minutes with mediocre lines? Blech.

Anderson Varejao – 20/18/3 with a steal and a block. I had the guy pegged for a double-double which was not a shocking prediction but what he’s been doing has been insane! Like Crazy Eddie! Remember him? Probably not. Anyway, it’s not talent that is the issue, it’s health. If you feel you want to sell extremely high right now, I wouldn’t begrudge you. I hardly know you!

Tristan Thompson – 5/6/0 on 1-7 FG in 24 minutes. Unless there’s a hot free agent out there like a Jonas Valanciunas type, I don’t see any choice but to hold. So hold!

Dion Waiters – 16/3/7 with 2 steals and a block on 7-20 FG. Now the owner of a .377 FG but he’s still hitting 1.9 threes per and stealing the ball 1.3 times per to go along with 15 ppg. If the FG starts to figuratively drag you down then look to move him. Or don’t! Your call!

Andrea Bargnani – 21/4/1 with a steal and 3 threes. That line was very European of you, Andrea. By the way, I wonder what the over/under date is on him hurting his back and missing 3 weeks.

Terrance Ross – I scanned the Raptors box score to see who I wanted to blurb about. I saw Dominic McGuire, the Irish black guy, nah. I saw Jonas Valanciunas, how many times can I shove his ass down your throat? I scanned some more, I saw Kyle Lowry. Boring! Scanned down some more and saw Jose Calderon and his 24 minutes. Been there done that, you already knew to sell him high 10 days ago! And you definitely knew not to buy him! Then at the very, very bottom, the last name appeared. It was Terrance Ross and next to his name was the number 36. As in minutes! Then 9-17 as in FG! Then 19/5/1 and a three to boot. Wowza! Where did that come from? So I did what I always do when I need answers, I went down to the corner and bought the USA Today. Only hard copy will do! In there it said go ahead and add him in deeep leagues for his upside and monitor elsewhere. Gosh, I love the USA Today. My league hoops commissioner also still does the league standings by hand every week using it. You should try it, it’s fun!

Jeremy Lin – 16/4/10 with 3 steals and a three. Once Jeremy Lin climbed Mount Everest by accident.

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47 Comments

  1. Someone in my 10 team H2H league just dropped Marcus Thornton. Should I dump Gordon Hayward or Ersan Ilyasova for him? At first it seemed like a no brainer to grab him, but after looking at his numbers I realized that he doesn’t really do much besides score. On top of that his minutes seem a bit spotty, and the Kings back court has been a disaster. I was thinking of passing on him, but rankings from other sites have him above Hayward and Ilyasova. What are your thoughts?

    Thanks again!

  2. @Adrian: I think they need to fire Keith Smart, guy is more clueless than Paul Westphall, ha. Anyway, talking about different animals. Ersan can bring big boards so it’s really need based. In a vacuum, I’d prefer MT over Ersan. I’d hold Hayward.

  3. Will you do a KG + Humphries for Gasol trade? Im trying to buy low Gasol…or my offer is too generous?

    I have
    Irving/Lawson/Lowry/Vasquez
    Matthews/Smith
    G Davis/Anderson/KG/Hump/Nowitzki
    Pekovic

  4. Hey Hec, Love your daily posts. :)

    H2H points league. I love Nate Robinson but he hasn’t been getting any minutes. I was thinking I would wait to see what happens tonight but I’m looking to drop him for Foye before tonight, yes? Thinking Foye should have a good game tonight.

    Also, I picked up Marvin Williams this week for the 4 games but Singler is out there should I drop Marvin for Singler?

  5. First thing I do when I get to work: check out Hecman’s blog!!! Yes, I’m still not gonna pull the trigger on Gasol, i like the guy. My partner says he looks like a chicken, so random I know. Anyway! Thanks for the notes, I will keep an eye on T Ross for now. Did I mention I’m #1 in my league so far? That’s all you! sniff.

  6. You’re missing the key thing from Pau though Hec. Sure his FG% is considerably worse than his career averages. But the reason behind that is not just because of his poor shooting not rounding into form – he’s been shooting further away from the basket with Dwight hogging the paint.

    Check out the graph from: http://nba.si.com/2012/11/27/pau-gasol-mike-dantoni-los-angeles-lakers/pau-gasol-lakers-shots3/

    However, for the record, I still consider Pau a buy low as he will be better – but no longer top 20-30. That means, I would not hesitate to deal someone like Hibbert away for him, but not a Monroe.

  7. Hey man! Someone offered his Joe Johnson for my JR Smith. At first im like, its a no brainer JJ over JR. But when I took a look at their gamelogs, JR is clearly the more all around player with more rebs and steals and just about the same assists and 3s. And historically, even if JR got limited burn before, he still averaged more steals than JJ, and all I want from my SG are pts, stls and 3s the others are just good ol gravy, and right now JR is clearly looking like the better option. But yes there are concerns about JR when Iman and Amare comes back, but Woodson loves JR because of his activity and athleticism, He is the Knicks 6th man and gunslinger off the bench and I dont see that changing much barring injury and a JR meltdown. Any thoughts? Trade or no trade?

  8. Great write up as always. A guy dropped Isaiah Thomas in my 12 team league and I’m tempted to scoop him up given all his preseason hype. Is there a chance he might be worth a stash? Should he be dropped for Hinrich/Ridnour/Foye?

    Side note: A lot of games tonight means a full line up. Who would you rather sit tonight: Humphries in Boston or Brand in Chicago? Thanks

  9. hey Hec, any love at all for Aminu? Don’t really, if ever see his name pop up on any of your lists? Pretty solid all round numbers. What’s your thoughts on picking him up if he’s a FA? Was thinking of dropping Gee or Pargo for him?

  10. Also my Tyson for Hibbert and my Lillard for Dragic? Separate deals, Good idea? Heres myteam by the way.

    Jennings, Rondo, Lillard, Nash
    Batum, JR
    Love, JoshSmith, Parsons
    Marc, BrookLopez, Tyson

  11. @CL: Keep trying, just hope he doesn’t read this blog. Ha.

    @Bill: I think he will return 5th round value at worst. His dimes and steals are above average and he’ll score low double digit points with solid FT and around 4 boards per. His FG is atrocious but everyone knows that.

    @playa: The way Humphries has been playing with Wallace in the lineup, you’re not trading the Hump of the last 2 or 3 years. The names look good but I’d probably make the deal to get the best player.

    @FC: Thanks! I am also a fan of Nate when he gets burn but it’s not happening right now, unfortunately. I’d lose him for Foye. I’d go with Singler.

    @rroman14: Thanks! Here’s to continued success in your league!

    @BigMan: Good point on shot selection to date but I think a point guard like Steve Nash will make him better and put him in a position to make higher percentage shots. Let’s see. I don’t see any real reason to deal a Monroe for him in any event so I agree with that.

    @JohnyG: I’d make the deal. I don’t think Deron and Joe have gotten on the same page yet and think JJ will only improve as the season progresses.

  12. Hec I just accepted the Hawes for Foye deal, my team looks like this now
    PG: Ty, Teague, Pargo
    SG: Ellis, Beal, Foye, Rivers
    SF: LeBron, Deng
    PF: Randolph, Mullens
    C: BroLo, Kaman, Valanciunas
    Foye also plays PG so if and when the Pargo party eventually ends he can slide over and I can pick up the next guy. I think it’s the right move, I just hope it works out. Thanks for the advice!

  13. @Doog: Thanks! Short term Foye is the better play but, unless you really need his threes, I’d lose him for Thomas. The upside is just to high to resist. Just don’t beat yourself up in the interim when Foye knocks down 3 or 4 treys while Thomas gets 18 minutes of burn.

    @mfawcett: I think I blurbed about Aminu on Monday. I’d lose Pargo for him.

    @JohnyG: I prefer Hibbert who is a difference maker in the blocks department. As much as I love Lillard, I prefer to have Dragic.

  14. considering offering up al jefferson, marcus thornton and dion waiters for marc gasol, kyle lowry and kyle singler. what do you think of this? I know that al jefferson and marcus thornton are not at the value that they were projected to hold yet and that gasol and lowry are probably at inflated value now. 12 team 9 cat h2h
    Thanks, man!

  15. @JShap: If I were you I’d make that deal every day and twice on Sundays.

    @Snowman: He’s due for regression so sure but don’t undersell him either.

  16. Just got offered George Hill and I would be giving up Kawhi Leonard. Looks like Leonard should be back soon. What do you think of this?

  17. wassup hec
    should I pick up kyle singler or scola
    also I was offered Derozan for MWP. what should I do. Mwp gets more 3’s and more steels. Thanks

  18. @Rob: Wow, that’s close. Considering Baby’s poor percents and lack of blocks, I’d probably do it. Definitely a bit risky though. As for Rubio, dropping GV is tough, he’s played so well. Ricky is definitely the sexier name but GV is producing with no real reason to slow down so I’d probably hold. GV is your worst guy?

    @Ken: Hard to roll with Scola right now so Singler by default. I prefer DeRozan. I think MWP is a nice sell high right now.

  19. Well my team is
    PG: Kyrie Irving, Steve Nash, Jeff Teague & Grevies Vasquez
    SG: Klay Thompson
    SF: Josh Smith Chandler Parsons & Ersan Ilyasova
    PF: Paul Milsap, Glen Davis, Byron Mullens,& Ryan Anderson
    C: Marcin Gortat

    My plan was to drop Ilyasova for Kawahi Lenoard when comes back, Trade Davis for Valchunes, and drop GV for Rubio. Would you still do it?

  20. Hey Hec,

    I currently have Faried, Favours, Asik and McGee as my big men in a 10 team, 12 player dynasty league. I had picked up Ilyasova in hopes for a resurgence but it doesn’t look like that’s gonna happen with our buddy Skiles running the show. Is dropping Ilyasova for Valanciunas a big man overload or a solid foundation for a future dynasty?

    Thanks man keep up the great work.

  21. Hec: Hi man! Seems like Lou is heating up, he posted 17-5-1 today, would you trade him for mayo or Martin?
    20 team deep league on ESPN, 8 cats (no to) H2H
    Lawson PG,SG
    Okafor C
    Turner SG,SF
    Humphries PF
    Jordan C
    Vasquez PG
    Love PF,C
    Parsons SF
    Lou Williams PG,SG
    Jamison PF

  22. @Rob: Sure, all three are fine to do. You have a nice deep team there.

    @Tuner: Thanks! I’d pick up JV, his future looks pretty bright so he makes sense for a dynasty league.

    @Sayrus777: If you read my Draft Guide you know I was high on Lou. I’d move him for Mayo but probably not for Martin.

    @JShap: I think it’s pretty fair. Cousins is a bit of a buy low right now but beware his bad percents for a big man which are especially killer.

    @David: It’s close but I’d probably make the move for the upside. Rip isn’t the most reliable.

  23. Hec: yeah I know you are high on Lou, but can you look at my team and tell what would you add to make it better? I feel like I am missing steals, blocks are ok I guess..but I am considering to drop Okafor for Seraphin or Drummond anyway. The depth is good?

  24. @Colonel, stats wise they shoot similar (bad) FG% though Waiters is below his college averages, Sess gets a few more assists & rebounds, but Waiters has more 3s, steals and less TOs.

    I’m not either Hec or JFort but my opinion for what its worth is no – hold onto Waiters. Sooner or later Henderson will be back causing a squeeze for guard playing time – inevitably Sessions will see less of the court, whereas Waiters PT is not under any threat at all.

  25. hey hec great blog! first season of fantasy nba and killing it in first place cuz of my daily visits back here lol.
    i was wondering about pau gasol i wanna listen to your suggestion to try for pau low at the moment. im in a 12 team 9-cat league and it seems like the other owner needs guards, who would you suggest? im thinking i can afford to give up some 3’s and offer k martin but is that stretching it?

    heres my team:
    Jamal Crawford G
    stephen curry G
    Lou williams G
    kevin martin G
    Ramon sessions G
    Jason richardson G F
    Ryan anderson F C
    Kyle singler G, F
    Tayshaun prince F
    Al hoford F C
    patrick patterson F C
    Dwight howard C
    Marcin Gortat C

  26. @sayrus777: Okafor serves a purpose in a 20 team league so I’m not sure I’d drop him but I’d consider losing Jamison for Seraphin if you want to improve FG and blocks.

    @Colonel Kitchen: I agree with Andrew. Hold Waiters.

    @alister: Thanks! It’ll take more than Martin to land Pau, perhaps offer him Martin and Patrick Patterson which probably also isn’t enough but start with that. Cheers to continued success in your league!

    @punchie: I’d lose him for Jamal.

  27. Hec, its been a week or so since you mentioned Patrick Patterson & I just noticed he’s still only 37% owned. Decided to switch JV for PP as PP has the higher usage rate (plus I need 3s), though I expect both will have quiet nights here & there.

  28. Hec, I’ve got John Wall but am looking to cut him and sign Rubio instead. More assists and rebs, fewer to’s. Is this a good move?

    Also what should I do with Bargnani? Should I attempt a trade or just plain cut him? Thanks.

  29. @Vince: Give it a shot, Wallace is no slouch. Worst he says is no.

    @Andrew: I actually had both in my pre-season Sleepers post. I’m fine with that move and, yes, I agree, both will have quiet nights from time to time.

    @JR: Very precarious, I would not advise that.

    @Danny: I prefer Wall if you can hold on for a couple of weeks. If not then go ahead and make the move. I wouldn’t cut Bargnani, try to move him once he’s back healthy if you want to lose him.

  30. Hec: I can`t add Seraphin while holding Okafor, as we are allowed to have only two centers in the squad.
    I just traded Lou for Mayo)))
    waiting for a new post, mate!)

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