Time to now buy the Mayo

Fantasy basketball is such a fluid, funny game. One day you’re a sell high candidate and the next you’re a buy low guy. Let’s take a look at the most recent example of this phenomena, O.J. Mayo. Over his last 5, O.J. is averaging 33.6 mpg/8.8 ppg/2.2 rpg/4 apg/.6 3pm/2.2 spg/.321 FG/.636 FT. Pretty putrid numbers if you ask me and not very becoming! As if! Did everyone and their mother expect some regression with Dirk Nowitzki back in the lineup? Suuuuure they did but nothing like this so go ahead and try to buy O.J. a bit low if his owner is panicked. Oh, and don’t just email the guy/girl asking what he/she wants for O.J., that’s not very subtle. You’re much smoother than that! Just send out a feeler saying you’re looking for a guard, anyone available? See if you get a bite. You clever fantasy player you. Oh, part 2!, speaking of trade strategy, feel free to check out my trade strategy post from last month. Just click on the link there and you’ll be magically taken to trade strategy nirvana. Or Nirvana if you like grunge rock. Anyway, there were just 4 lonesome games in the NBA yesterday, here’s what else I saw in fantasy basketball:

Darren Collison – 18/5/8 with a steal in 33 minutes. Here’s what I told you back on November 29: Darren Collison – DNP – Finger. It’s been a strange, strange week for DC owners. First, he comes off the bench on Tuesday but plays 30 minutes anyway. Then the coach says Collison is his starting point guard. Then he’s a DNP last night with the finger bone problem. Then Dallas announces they are signing Derek Fisher today. Then the coach says he likes Darren coming off the bench and Fisher will start. Um, okaaaaay. If you read me regularly you know I’ve never been DC’s biggest fan. That said, I was totally cool with him as long as he was getting 32 minute of burn nightly like he has been but if he’s only going to get say 26 minutes of burn? Meh, not so much. With Derek Fisher now fishing (pun alert!) DC has averaged 35 mpg over his last 3. Like I said last month, I’m cool if he’s getting 30+ minutes of burn. Let’s see if the coach looks for some other reason to limit his minutes in January. Wouldn’t shock me at all. Gzzzz.

Dirk Nowitzki – 8/5/2 with 3 blocks in 18 minutes. Speaking of buy low, your window is closing soon, boss. May I call you boss? I know you like that.

Larry Sanders – 4/3/0 with 2 steals and a block in 20 minutes. Quick, try to buy him slightly cheap. Quick, quick. You probably won’t be able to though. Insert sad face emoticon here.

Mike Dunleavy – 9/2/0 with 3 threes in 28 minutes. Cheap threes, y’all!

Ersan Ilyasova – 24/5/2 with 3 threes in 27 minutes. Your guess is as good as mine when he’s going to go off. In H2H or rotiss leagues with no games played cap, he’s fine as a plug and play. In leagues with a games cap, I’d be ssscaaaaaaaared. Booo!

Will Bynum – 8/2/5 with a block in 24 minutes. What, you thought he’d drop 30 every night? Continue to stream if Rodney Stuckey is to miss more time.

Brandon Knight – 11/3/3 with 2 threes in 35 minutes. I’ve gotten a lot of “What’s going on with Brandon Knight?” questions over the last week. My response: Nothing, carry on!

Kyle Singler – 8/3/0 with 3 steals in 31 minutes. Kyle’s been pretty bad but he seems to be getting his second wind a bit lately. Go ahead and consider as a streamer in deeep leagues while Rodney Stuckey gets fitted for a new ankle.

Jason Maxiell – 10/10/3 in 26 minutes. Hard hat guy is only averaging 21.6 mpg over his last 5. He still averaging 5.4 rpg and a block per over that span but it’s slowly becoming Andre Drummond time so brace yourself!

Tiago Splitter – 13/6/1 with 2 steals in 27 minutes. Over his last 5 he’s averaging 24.2 mpg/8.6/5.6/.6 bpg. Sounds about right. Can’t really expect more so if that floats your boat then float away.

Jason Terry – 20/3/0 with a steal and 2 threes in 33 minutes. I’m still selling him if I could off these strong games. Avery Bradley lurks.

Isaiah Thomas – 27/4/5 with a steal and 3 threes in 40 minutes. Importantly, he only had 2 tovs which has been his shortcoming. We’ve gone over Isaiah many times in the past few weeks here and here and here  so I’m not going to continue to pimp him. I just hope you picked him up two weeks ago! I want you to win! I care! Sniff.

DeMarcus Cousins – 12/10/10 with a steal on 4-12 FG as he showcased his mad skills for his potential future employers. Or so I”m hearing anyway. Hope they took note of the poor FG!

Brandon Bass – 6/3/0 in 20 minutes as he continues to suck. Hey, maybe he’ll end up in Sacramento. You never know!

Caron Butler – 29/3/1 with 2 steals and 6 threes as all his deeeeep league owners rejoiced. Monitor but don’t hold your breath on consistent production. You’ll turn blue!

DeAndre Jordan – 14/6/1 with 3 blocks in 30 minutes. I actually bought DeAndre about a week ago after he had a few games of minutes in the teens. Sold Jared Dudley for DeAndre and Andrew Nicholson. Buy low/sell high, y’all! Let’s see if it pans out.

Gordon Hayward – 16/5/2 with 2 steals and a three in 28 minutes. Marvin Williams has a bad knee bone so Gordon benefits. Sad that a guy like Marvin has to kill the fantasy hopes and dreams of Hayward owners. Sigh. I feel your pain, said Derick Favors’ owner.

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54 Comments

  1. @JKH: Barring injury to Millsap or Jefferson, Favors is blocked a bit while Drummond’s opportunity for minutes is much greater. I’d probably make the move for the huge upside.

  2. Hey Hec, what do you think the long term upside is on Shved? I am thinking about using him in a 2-1 trade and then picking up Turkoglu or Seraphin off waivers. Does he have top 60 upside?

  3. @Colin: I like Shved long term and think he can be a top 60 player with 30+ minutes a game. For just this year though, if you can get the best player in a deal and pick up someone like Hedo to replace Shved, I’d try for it.

  4. Should i trade Kyrie, DMC, Klay for KD + j Rich and then trade KD for Aldridge, Lin, Favors, Isiah Thomas, kieff Morris in a Points keeper league?

    Aldridge owner doesn’t want Kyrie because he is injury prone and DMC has issues

  5. Happy New Year, Hec.

    Is Amare worth picking up? I’ve been changing out my PF/C depending on who is playing that day so I would like to pick up solid PF/C. Any thoughts on his playing time or his productivity?

  6. @juju: Happy new year! Depends on the drop but I think he’ll be a solid 28+ mpg once he’s up to speed and that’s plenty to do some damage in fantasy.

  7. Darren Collison is available in my 8 team 15 players league. I currently have droppable player in my SG (Jason Richardson and Kawhi Leonard), but here is my dilemma, those two the my only SG.

    The rest of my team is as follows:

    PG – Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Rus Westbrook
    SG – Jason Richardson, Kawhi Leonard
    SF – Paul Pierce, MKG, MWP
    PF – Cousins, Drummond, Thad Young, LM Aldridge,
    C – Asik, M Gasol, Vucevic

    I believe in Collison, actually thought he was gonna explode last year, but then he went to Pacers.

    Advice needed…

    Oh and.. Happy New Year!

  8. Happy New Year Hec!

    I just bought low on Lin from a frustrated owner. I gave up MWP for him! Good move?

    Also, It looks like Lou Williams is going to stay as a starter, should I trade Deng for him? I have LeBron, Durant and Dudley as my other SFs. I don’t really have a need for this move but I am looking for value. What do you think?

  9. Following up on my question earlier, you would trade Cousins and Shved for KLove? I don’t think he will be a top 10 player this year, but I like him more than Cousins

  10. @NCR: If you’re poor in percents that’s not a bad deal. I’m not sure I’d flip KD though, IT, Favors and Morris aren’t sure things and I’d prefer to have KD over LA and Lin. You can’t leave Klay out of it and just offer Irving/DMC for Durant?

    @zhushiegau: Based on need I’d hold the shooting guards you have, especially Kawhi.Happy New Year!

    @phanna: Happy New Year! I like that deal for you. I’d hold Deng if you don’t have a need for that move.

  11. Thanks Hec! You are legit! I appreciate that you work holidays so that we can win an imaginary trophy. I hope you get paid time and a half!

  12. I’m thinking about dropping either Kawhi or Jose for Isaiah, Hedo, Shved, or Hayward – what do you think about this (any suggestions?)?

    Thanks!

  13. hey hec! not much time so i’ll make this quick. I’ve got mullens and Valanciunas both out for like a month. i’m about in the middle of the pack right now but i won last week 5-4 so wondering if you think i can survive with two guys injured for a month or if i should drop one of them for one of the following or continue to hold:
    Seraphin, splitter, Maxiell..just a short list off the top of my head…
    thanks hec happy new year!

  14. @phanna: Thanks!

    @Colonel Kitchen: All these guys are kind of a toss up. If Calderon’s minutes start to dip then lose him for Isaiah if he continues to get burn, otherwise Shved. I lean toward holding Kawhi.

  15. @allballs: Happy New Year! I’d hold Mullens but lose JV for Seraphin’s upside. I don’t think it’s a good idea to be short two bench spots in H2H, you’ll be at a big disadvantage.

  16. Hey Hec, thinking about buying low on Dragic. Figure I can cash in on the I.Thomas hype and package him with Jeremy Lin. The guy has been after Lin for awhile, so he might bite. Should I make the move?

  17. @hecman: It sounds like you foresee A. Drummond to gain starter’s minutes in the second half of the season at least. At least that’s what I’m hoping for! Does dropping E. Turner for him make some sense? I can afford to dump Turner’s assists and three’s and I could use a double-digit rebounder and consistent blocks.

  18. @Drez1: I like that for you. Of course, you could lose big if Thomas gets a steady 30 minutes of burn but if you want the sure thing best player then I’d go for it. Maybe you can get a lesser second useful player back in a 2 for 2.

  19. @JR: Turner has some nice value so dropping him for Drummond is kind of tough. Instead, I’d first look to make a two for one with Turner and another player for one better player than grab Drummond off the wire.

  20. Happy New Year Hec!

    I was just offered his ZBo for my BroLo in a 10-team H2H. Should I accept it? I’m doing well in blocks every week, but without BroLo, I won’t clinch it every week, but my rebounding should take a nice uptick.

    My Team:

    PGs: Dragic, Jennings, I. Thomas
    SG/SFs: Batum, Leonard, KMartin, Gay, Shved
    PF/Cs: LBJ, Aldridge, Hibbert, A. Davis, B. Lopez

    I’m also in the works for a deal of my Kmart + Kawhi for Kemba + Matt Barnes/Jason Thompson. That’s a win for me right?

  21. @Mr.2013: Hard to say exactly. As I mentioned in today’s post, I sold him for DeAndre Jordan and Nicholson which I thought was a pretty decent take. It really depends on your needs. Target teams lower in the standings who may have guys underachieving.

    @BigMan: Happy New Year! Anyway you can push Hibbert on him since he’s after the blocks? If not, then it’s pretty reasonable. Normally, I’d actually say hold Brook but his foot kind of scares me. You don’t want it ending up in your ass so if you want the “healthier” player, then go Zach. I also like the Kemba deal, JT would also get you back some blocks that you lose from Brook.

  22. hi idol hec, glen davis is available. i want to stash him before anyone else does. should i drop bargnani for him? this is my team: thanks

    G
    Deron Williams
    Jason Kidd
    Rodney Stuckey
    Mo Williams
    Alexey Shved

    F
    Gerald Henderson
    Paul George
    Kevin Love
    Andrea Bargnani

    C
    DeAndre Jordan
    Nikola Pekovic
    Chris Kaman
    Nikola Vucevic

  23. Hey Hec,

    No go on Hibby. His value is shot and he has a very well-rounded team so I couldn’t try to go for a 2 for 1. I think taking Zbo’s playoff schedule (4-4-4 vs 4-3-3) into account, I might do the trade.

    Thanks for your help!

  24. @adrian: Seraphin.

    @BigMan: You’re welcome! Good luck!

    @alex: He should be ok. I wouldn’t move him for anything less than early 2nd round value.

  25. @Boleros: Ooops, sorry, was working off a phone and answered quickly. If you prefer the boards over the 3s then go for it. Both will give you poor FG.

  26. Deron- He should be ok. I wouldn’t move him for anything less than early 2nd round value.

    Why would anyone give you second round value for Deron. He barely has top 50 value.
    He has bone spurs in his ankle, making him an injury risk. Moreover his shot is terrible this year and was terrible last year.

  27. Hec – Do you really believe and would bet your reputation that Deron will finish with second round value!!!

    I see lots of experts offer this advice. And sometimes it has merit and sometimes it does not. Deron has a great name and perceived value, but his actual value might be 3rd round at best. I mean is he really as good as rondo, Kyrie or even Holliday this year.

  28. 14 team 9 cat H2H.
    I’m currently in 3rd place. What moves would you suggest in order to make my team better? Should I target OJ Mayo or any other buy lows? (Notable players on waiver wire: Hedo Turkoglu, bradley beal, shannon brown, belleneli, patrick patterson, tony allen, seraphin, corey brewer, cj miles) thanks.

    My team:
    James Harden
    Deron Williams
    Isaiah Thomas
    Marcin Gortat
    Kawhi Leonard
    Carlos Boozer
    Matt Barnes
    George Hill
    Eric Gordon
    Monta Ellis
    Gordon Hayward
    Derrick Favors

  29. @Tommy: Your points are very fair. For me it’s more about his clear upside. I wouldn’t blame anyone for moving him for 3rd round value but IMO you’re selling him there slightly low based on his history and potential so it’s something I wouldn’t advise doing. Remember, fantasy basketball is a buy low/sell high game and you’d be on the sell low side.

    @shabazz m: I think you could use a big man and have nice guard depth so I’d try for a two for one where you get a solid big man then fill the empty roster spot with Hedo or Beal. Check out my trade strategy post for suggestions.

  30. Hey Hec,

    Just got Isiah Thomas/Markieff Morris for Corey Brewer, what u think?
    Can Isaiah return to last year form?

  31. sorry, one more for you..

    in a 14 team roto league (9 cat), would you rather own Jeff Green or Lance Stephenson

    thanks again!

  32. Hey Hec,
    Total PTS league, do I trade my: Rudy Gay & Paul Millsap for his Chris Bosh & Ty Lawson?
    Also,
    different league, I’m giving up Klay, Joe Johnson, DMC, & Blatche for his: King James, Wes Mathews, & JJ Hickson? Should I ask him to throw in Deng ?

  33. Hec,

    Someone just offered me Deron for Varejao. Normally this would be an easy yes, but I’ve been reading stuff about Deron’s fatigue/injuries/suckiness issues. What do you think?

    Thanks!

  34. Hi Hec,

    What is happening with Memphis? I (unfortunately) have Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley. They both are struggling so bad (other than the blocks tonight) Gasol only getting 12 points and 6 rebounds, and Conley has had MUCH TOO MANY games in which he shoots HORRRRRIDD FG%, barely scores at all, and barely gets any assists. Am I stuck with garbage, or do you think there is any chance of them somehow turning this around?

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