The Fantasy Breakdown of the Rudy Gay Trade!

By: Jeff Rosenberg – Staff Writer (@Jewish_Jeff)

Nice way to kick off what looks to be a busy trade season for the NBA. Wednesday night saw the Memphis Grizzlies officially trade SF/PF Rudy Gay, sending him to the Toronto Raptors along with C Hamed Haddadi. Memphis receives PF/C Ed Davis from Toronto, as Toronto also sends PG Jose Calderon to the Detroit Pistons. Finally, the Pistons send SF/PF Tayshaun Prince and SF/PF Austin Daye to the Grizzlies. For a better visual, see below:

Memphis gets…

PF/C Ed Davis (Toronto)

SF/PF Tayshaun Prince (Detroit)

SF/PF Austin Daye (Detroit)

Toronto gets…

SF/PF Rudy Gay (Memphis)

C Hamed Haddadi (Memphis)

Detroit gets…

PG Jose Calderon (Toronto)

A huge three-way trade that certainly changes things for fantasy basketball owners.

TORONTO

First of all, the Raptors acquire a guy that they consider their first superstar player since Chris Bosh took his talents to South Beach. Rudy Gay should see a nice bump in points. I believe he’ll go from 17.2 points per game, to easily over 20.0 per game in Toronto. Gay’s arrival obviously presents issues for DeMar Derozan owners and Alan Anderson speculators, as both are expected to lose touches, and ultimately points, their main draws. This could be a great change of scenery for Gay, as the Raptors will most certainly make him their first option. In Memphis Gay was considered the superstar but was surrounded by a lot higher skilled and overall better talent in PF/C Zach Randolph, C Marc Gasol and PG Mike Conley. Talent that will be clearly absent in Toronto.

With Ed Davis out, both C Jonas Valanciunas and PF/C Andrea Bargnani will gain momentum upon their returns from injury. Bargnani figures to take the starting center role, but Valanciunas will get good minutes as well, likely 22-25 minutes per game, as the next big man off the bench. PF/C Amir Johnson will end up holding his value from what he’s been doing in their absence, staying as the starting PF. C Aaron Gray holds value until the return of either Bargnani or Valanciunas, as he will start in the interim. Once both return, Gray will likely be on the outside looking in, but still ahead of Hamed Haddadi who will remain irrelevant with the move from Memphis to Toronto.

The clear winner on the Toronto Raptors will be PG Kyle Lowry. Lowry, who is currently averaging 13.5 points and 5.8 assists on 27 minutes per game, played 30 minutes Wednesday night with Calderon on the bench, and figures to see more games than not with 30+ minutes for the rest of the season. The Grizzlies’ former 24th overall pick out of Villanova is finally free in Toronto, and now becomes a must-start player in all fantasy formats.

For what it’s worth, PG Jerry Lucas will now be Lowry’s sole backup at point guard. Wednesday night, Lucas logged 24:02 minutes with 19 points and two assists on 8-16 shooting. I’m not confident in him seeing this much playing time routinely going forward, but he may be someone to watch in deeper formats.

MEMPHIS

While Memphis will end up just fine in terms of depth on their team, they unquestionably gave up the best player in the deal, sending Gay to Toronto. Ed Davis is a bright young big man who will develop nicely behind Randolph and Gasol, while Prince brings veteran leadership, a championship ring and experience guarding the best player the opposition has, which will all prove useful during the Grizzlies’ 2013 playoff run. It’s no secret however, the ownership group in Memphis (which is made up of more than 20 partners including Justin Timberlake, Penny Hardaway, Peyton Manning’s wife Ashley and controlling partner Robert Pera) was concerned with the team hitting the luxury tax both this season and next, as they completed a huge salary dumping lob-sided trade last week sending PF Marreese Speights, guards Josh Selby and Wayne Ellington, as well as a 2015 first round pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for forward Jon Leur. The trade with Cleveland cut over $4.5M in salary this season, and saved an additional $4M from the luxury tax.

Ed Davis comes in and will fill the role that Speights had during his days in Memphis. Davis will serve as the first big off the bench for the Grizzlies, backing up Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, seeing his minutes cut from 33:21 over the last 30 days likely dropped to about 20-22 per game as he drops from the Toronto starting lineup to the Memphis bench. He has lost his guaranteed starter role on your squad, and is likely now cut-able in all but the deepest of leagues.

I have noticed some rumblings about Tayshaun Prince’s value being on the rise in this deal, but I’m not buying it. Prince, the final remaining member of the 2003-04 NBA Champion Pistons (since Ben Wallace retired this past offseason), leaves Detroit for Memphis in the three-way deal. Prince will keep his starting SF role as he makes the move to Western Tennessee, and will likely keep the same 32:30 average minutes per game. With the move, I don’t see any major stat changes coming from Prince. In his 11th NBA season at age 32 (33 in February), Prince is not as sure a shooter nor as solid defensively as he once was. He’ll also have to adjust for the first time in his career to a brand new team. While Prince enjoyed his best days on a team just as deep as this Grizzlies team, Prince will likely continue to post the pedestrian numbers we’ve seen this season with Detroit.

Austin Daye, the Pistons’ 15th overall pick from the 2009 draft, will continue to be fantasy irrelevant as he retains his 14:30 minutes per game as a three-point specialist in Memphis.

DETROIT

While the Pistons’ acquisition of Jose Calderon may sound confusing to many, it really sets the team up quite nicely for this coming off-season. Calderon comes to Detroit with an expiring $10.5M contract, combined with a slew of other contracts Detroit has coming off the books at the end of the year, which will leave the team clearing about $26M heading into the off-season (Hi Dwight!).

Calderon owners, unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be. Calderon, unlike former teammate Kyle Lowry, will not be freed upon being traded to Detroit. He will keep his starting role, mostly in title only, as he’ll be entrenched in a new platoon with Pistons’ 8th overall pick from 2011, Brandon Knight. Calderon will likely continue doing what he’s been doing all season, which is a very effective 11.1 points, 7.4 dimes and excellent percentages in 28 minutes. While his minutes could take a slight dip with the platoon, and the scenario in Detroit won’t present the opportunities Calderon would have had if he was traded to the Boston Celtics, Calderon still remains a must-own point guard with Detroit.

SG/SF Kyle Singler may have just gotten the break of a life time. Wednesday night, with Prince and Daye out of the rotation, Singler started at small forward and played just over 30 minutes. Singler’s the early favorite to see added minutes in the rotation, although he didn’t quite show up for his big opportunity Wednesday going 5/4 with two blocks, two steals and a three.

PG/SG Rodney Stuckey is the likely candidate to draw the starting shooting guard role in the back court with Calderon. Stuckey had been receiving 28 minutes before the trade, and will likely retain the same value he has, little-to-none in all but the deepest of formats, going forward.

PG/SG Brandon Knight will be involved in the back-end of the platoon with Calderon at point guard. His minutes will likely take a hit from 32 minutes a game down closer to 25 minutes a game. He should see some time at shooting guard backing up Stuckey as well. While I may not dump Knight just to dump him today, he’s a guy to move to the bottom of your team’s value list that you could comfortably cut if the right free agent presents himself.

PF Charlie Villanueva is a guy I recommend you add to your watchlist. While he hasn’t performed nearly like he did for the Milwaukee Bucks a few years ago, he has been a solid source of threes for the Pistons this season. With Prince and Daye both shipped out and no incoming forward, Villanueva could see some time at the small forward position. Villanueva was looking like he was trending up at the end of December, but has fallen off the table this month. This could be a chance for him to right the ship in Detroit, if he’s given the opportunity. Keep an eye out!

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29 Comments

  1. No chance of calderon running the point full time and knight moving to sg with stucky coming off da bench?? This is the case I wish for as I’m holding calderon but it also seems right for the pistons to do since knight isn’t exactly moving the ball like a calderon would..and with all the love their coach gushes for the guy it just seems like they would try and keep em, esp since they wanted calderon last yr..it seems like a nice start of something

  2. Mornin’ Hec. Off topic, but what do you think about Earl Clark with Dwight’s injury acting up again, and Pau’s foot problem? Must-own/must-start?

  3. Sir Hecman,

    Should I go for Bargnani or Aminu to replace Davis?

    Other free agents are:

    Andrew Bynum, Kevin Love — both longshots, I know. ;-)

    Byron Mullens
    Jimmy Butler
    Andray Blatche
    Patrick Patterson
    Courtney Lee
    Lance Stephenson
    Wilson Chandler
    Devin Harris
    Bismack Biyombo
    Reggie Evans

    I could use help in rebounds and blocks…so I’m leaning Aminu while he’s hot…with an eye on Bismack once we get to the H2H playoffs. (Bobcats play 4 games each of the three weeks. :-D)

    As always, your advice is appreciated.

    Ciao

  4. Hec/Jeff!

    My Pierce for Lowry & Drummond trade got vetoed. Dratz! If they could have just waited 2 days before completing the trade, hehe.

    I will try and redo the trade by adding Matt Barnes on my end. Is this a reasonable move?

    That could have been the steal of the season, but alas!

  5. If you don’t mind me asking,what kind of minutes and fantasy points are you seeing for Drummond in the future? No one is picking up on Drummond in my ESPN league. He is sitting at a flat 51.7% owned, with no increase in add%.The big adds are Bogut +65%,Korver +51%,Okafor +44%,Splitter+18%, and A.Bynum=15%. Do you see Drummond out performing all of these guys?

  6. In a roto league here, I received an offer:
    (My) Nash, Kawhi, Ibaka for (his) Griffin, Vucevic, Gordon.

    I haven’t been too enamoured by Nash’s sudden resistance to pass, and Ibaka has been playing average lately. I am very keen on Vucevic and Griffin (although I reckon once cp3 is back, he will slow down). I am not keen on Gordon.

    My team is currently way down the ladder but I have got the edge on games played. My blocks stats is way up, but my. Rebounds and points are crap.

    Do you guys reckon this is a good deal?

  7. @Hitman There’s certainly a chance, and we probably will see them on the court together (Knight/Calderon) at some point, but what it looks like right now is a timeshare of PG for the two of them, with Stuckey at SG. The Pistons may consider Calderon in the off-season, but the main draw to them from this trade is having more than $26M to spend next season on a guy like Dwight Howard

    @Decaf You can hope Matt Barnes solid numbers on the year will push it through, but you’re still coming away huge, haha. Good luck!

    @BillyBob Drummond will get starter minutes in the second half, and really should get all the minutes he can handle. Drummond and Monroe are the two players DET will build around going forward. Out of all of the names you mentioned, I 100% without question pickup Drummond; he WILL outperform all of them ROS.

  8. @Yumcha A few things to consider:

    1) If usually don’t like doing trades where I’m giving up the best player (if I can avoid it). Best player here is Ibaka; however, I realize you’re “down the ladder”

    2) You will be basically trading your Blocks and FT% for his Points and Rebounds. The secondary changes, you will add some steals while also adding TOs.

    3) Glen Davis broke his foot last night and is out 8-12 weeks (100% cuttable!). Vucevic’s stock is on the rise (and he’s already performed very well). I like Vucevic a lot ROS…

    4) Eric Gordon is also on the rise, as he continues to gain momentum with Anthony Davis. I like Gordon 2nd half as well.

    5) While their schedules are even in week’s 21 and 23; you will pick up 2 extra games in Week 22 of the playoffs, as all three of Blake/Gordon/Vucevic have 4 games WK 22

    -It’s a solid trade for you moving forward. It sucks to trade Ibaka, but I like how it looks for you ROS. I would pull the trigger.

  9. Hey there Jeff,

    What’s some must own teams for fantasy players to be on during the play offs’s? Like who has the most games played and stuff. I haven’t seen you guys talk too much about that.

    Thanks

  10. Hey there Jeff and Hec,

    Hope you guys are having a great week! The weekly chat sounds like a great idea. As you can see, you have a pretty good cult following right now. I just got offered this big trade that I wanted to run by you guys. It’s a pretty crazy trade and I don’t know which way would benefit me more.

    He wants my Paul George for his Deron Williams

    My team is:
    Chris Paul
    Ty Lawson
    Darren Collison

    Paul George
    Nic Batum
    Danilio Gallinari
    Kawhi Leonard

    Paul Milsap
    Kenneth Faried
    Omer Asik
    Drummond

    I was planning on dropping Eric Bledsoe and using my #3 waiver to stash Rose
    and Drop Dudley to pick up either Amir Johnson or Danny Granger (Don’t think I should stash 2 injured player with CP3 out though)

    The Areas I’ve been struggling in Mostly now is 3pts, Assists, FT%, and FG% probably in that order. Do you guys see something in there?

    I’ve also been trying to move Faried Bad considering I have 3 Denver players. No bites yet though. :(

  11. @JollyRancher1 I like Amir over Jordan ROS and now. Better %s, more consistent minutes with Davis gone. Only thing Jordan will do better is BLKs, which Amir will still get you over 1 per game

    @JollyRancher2 Best Playoff schedules in standard leagues (Playoffs weeks 21-23) are: ATL, BOS, MEM, MIN, NYK, UTA and WAS with 4 games in all three weeks. If your team has a first round bye in week 21, ORL will be just as valuable (their schedule is 3-4-4 Wks 21-23, so with a first round bye you’ll still have 4 games a piece from ORL players in Weeks 22 and 23)

  12. @T$ It’ll really depend on your team necessities as you see them. You’re trading rebounds/stls for asts/ft% (while George does shoot FTs solid, Williams is taking 2-2.5 more per game, at an even better %). I can see your reasoning with the CP3 situation and lack of superstars at PG on your team besides him.

    As long as CP3 is out, I do not reccommend dropping Bledsoe. You’ll need/want the handcuff until CP3 goes at least a week healthy.

    I do however agree that you should look to stash Rose (over Granger, especially with your PGs).

    Another possibility to look at, is making a 2for1 offer on Williams, and immediately picking up Amir (who is now a must-start). If you give up Gallo/Asik for Williams (not sure it’s enough, but worth an offer) and then pick up Amir, you’d be looking real good ROS.

    I love the fact that you have Batum/George/CP3 as your “big 3″. If you can add Williams without breaking up that trio (and then add Rose/Amir!), you will be in great shape down the stretch.

  13. Jeff! How is my team looking? I’m in a yahoo league with 14 teams H2H. Any moves I should make, trades, pickups, etc? i’m currently in 4th place.

    players available on waiver wire: gordon hayward, bradley beal, beasley, wilson chandler, nate robinson, koufos, zeller, mullens, shevd, nate robinson.

    my team:
    pg: deron williams, george hill, avery bradley
    sg: james harden, monta ellis, eric gordon,
    sf: matt barnes, kawhi leonard, aminu
    pf: boozer, favors
    c: gortat

  14. Hey there Jeff,

    I offered him Galo and Asik for Deron, but he said he cant drop anyone. Is there any other comparable PG I could do this trade with?

    I would like to pick up Amir and Stash Rose but I would have to either lose Leonard or Bledsoe. Which one would you suggest losing?

    I was hoping CP3 returns next week so cutting Bledsoe was okay. I am currently nursing a small lead in first place with a relatively easier schedule coming up. I don’t mind punting assist for the time being if needed as well.

  15. Afternoon Hec! Enjoy the reads as always. It’s my daily who do you like more question! :) (except this time I’m comin at you with 3 players!) ooohhh

    Aminu – Ridnour – Hawes

    And let’s just go with overall value for the rest of the season.

  16. @Galaxy Not huge on Avery Bradley, but Beal’s timetable is questionable at best. If that’s your only option, I stay put until more news on Beal breaks.

    @T$ Hmmm, if he’d go Collison and Asik 2for1 for Williams, I’d do that too (still picking up Amir). I really am bothered by how the CP3 situation has played out so far, and am can’t advise you to cut Bledsoe (this is exactly how the Varejao situation went, and he ended up out for the year). Hate to have you cut Kawhi as well, but if you make the trade above, you may want to do Kawhi for Rose.

  17. Hey there Jeff,

    He doesn’t need Collison or Asik. Would you advise to trade CP3 then if I can get a 2 for one? Maybe Deron and 1 more like a Hickson or something?

    Best offer I had so far was Wall and Tyson for CP3. Still sounds too low though.

  18. Also if I can’t make a trade, would you Kawhi out of the bunch? News saying that CP3 should be coming back during this road trip. You don’t think he will?

  19. Great summary Jeff :) I’m reading rumours that Al Harrington, who’s been practicing with the team, could play for Orlando as early as next week.

  20. @t$ if you can get deron plus equal value for bledsoe I pull the trigger on cp3… tough call will be which of rose or amir to pick up… Bc of ur standing I go rose (way higher upside)

    @andrea very solid team, looks like you could use some pg help… Maybe consider a 241 with one of your sf to get another pg…I’d advise picking up mullens to help your bigs

    @ed ros… Aminu, hawes, Luke

  21. @andrew he’s been ineffective and injury prone for a while now, but w Davis out he’s worth watching

  22. Do you see lot bigger fantasy points from Amir Johnson, than Ilyasova, now that Ed Davis is gone?I know you really like Drummond.Which 2 do you like from A.Johnson,Ilyasova,Okafor,Drummond.I own Okafor and Ilyasova right now.

  23. @t$ yes

    @billybob very high on ersan (ask hec haha)… I’ve got Ersan then drum then amir then okafor… Okafor far behind others

  24. Someone wants Asik and Collison for Dragic. Is that too much? I was thinking just sending Asik for him and picking up Amir. Your thoughts? Thanks Jeff.

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